How This Unusual Campaign Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.
On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.
However the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite candidates.
This is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!
Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.
Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
